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Saturday, September 27, 2008

9/27/08 (just!) And the winner of Round 1 is.. Obama

All 6 of you who voted in my little personal poll were right (OK - 5 of you, I was one of them!) - Obama did win tonite, according to both polls taken by CNN
and CBS , and also according to most pundits that I heard and read. What is perhaps surprising is the margin by which he won in the polls - 51% to 38% on CNN. I saw the debate too and I would have said Obama did better on the economy but McCain did hold his own on the security issues, so I'd have given a slight edge to Obama. The reason for the large margins are 2-fold:
1. This debate on foreign policy and security was supposed to be McCain's forte (although the first 36 minutes were on the financial crisis) and Obama held his own, and IMHO, scored points for focusing on Al-Queda and Afghanistan and the essential role of international cooperation in responding to a global threat.
2. Apparently more Democrats than Republicans were watching the debate (what a surprise!), so the poll numbers favor the Dems (41% to 27%). We'll see tomorrow if this was significant.

Personally (and I'm trying not be biased), I thought Obama came off as being more calm, rational and composed - one might say Presidential - whereas McCain seemed defensive, always looking down or at Lehrer, was arrogant and repetitive- and many times, did what he's done in the campaign - lied, even about Obama's own statements, with Obama standing right there - but never once did McCain look Obama in the eye the entire time. With this attitude, he speaks of reaching across the aisle and working with Democrats? What a joke. It's been clear that the only time any Republican, be it McCain or Bush, is interested in working with Democrats is when their house of cards falls down and they're looking for help to share the blame. Sorry, guys, not this time. Here's grading of various aspects of their performance at Time/CNN .

The most pleasant surprise of these polls for me was the huge leads among women and very surprisingly, among those 55 or older - heretofore solidly McCainLand. Most likely, this relates to the fact that they think, rightly, that their retirement money is safer with Obama. As Jon King pointed out on CNN, this is also the most reliable voting group - so that is a huge boost. Also was nice that 64% thought Obama was more likely to win the election.

But let's not get too carried away - Kerry also had pretty big "wins" in the 2004 debates, and look what happened . That might have been more due to vote and voter manipulation, who knows? But that is precisely why we need to carry this momentum and build up a much bigger, unshakeable and undeniable lead going into Election Day. So, folks (and Obama), don't take your foot off the pedal - there is more work to be done.

But for tonite, mmm... that victory is nearly as sweet as my ice wine (from Canada - according to McCain, one of the terrorist refuges we send oil money to). Sleep well, gentle folk.

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